Nation of Misers(깍쟁이) By Christian CARYL
Newsweek 2005-1-2
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불안/不安한 장래/將來를 우려하는 일본/日本의 소비자/消費者들은 세계/世界가 요구/要求하는
일을 거부/拒否하고 있다.
그 요구/要求란 卽 ‘산다(買)는 것’이다.
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Japan’s worried consumers just won’t do what the world want them to do: buy.
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10년을 넘은 일본/日本의 불황/不況이 사람들로 하여금 그들 미래/未來가 크게 불안/不安하다는 느낌을 갖게 했다.
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More than a decade of recession has left the Japanese with a deep sense of insecurity about their future.
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성탄절/聖誕節을 준비하는 보름 동안, 사람들은 우시지마 유끼에 아줌마가 본격적/本格的으로 聖誕節 쇼핑을 할 것으로
期待할 것이다. 남편은 잘 나가는 건축가/建築家여서 그녀는 돈에 궁한 처지/處地도
아니었고, (a)†그녀는 게다가
‘사람들을 돈 쓰게 만드는 궁리’가 풍부한 일본에 살고 있는 터였다.
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A COUPLE OF WEEKS BEFORE Christmas you'd expect Yukie Ushijima,38, to be gearing up for some serious holiday shopping. She's not hurting for cash, after all, since her husband is a successful architect. What’s more, she lives in Japan, a country rich in clever strategies for separating people from their money.
But Ushijima has taken something akin to a consumer's vow of chastity. "It's become my natural habit not to spend unnecessarily" she says. "I hardly buy things at department stores - just window shopping." When the family has cash to spare, she usually invests it in stead to prepare for a secure retirement. Her preferred vehicle: Australian government bonds.
Japan has long been legendary for its tightfisted consumers, whose stubborn refusal to get out and spend has plagued the economy like a lingering nightmare. Yet this was the year that was supposed to change all that. The optimists had plenty of weighty arguments on their side. corporate profits were reaching new highs. Employment was moving steadily upward. And Japan's once astronomical savings rate was showing signs of descending to earthly levels. In May consumer confidence hit its highest level in 13 years. Well-wishers prayed that newly adventurous consumers would lift the world’s second largest economy out of the doldrums of deflation.
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그들은 아직 안 움직인다. 3/4분기 소비는 정부가 기대했던 3.7% 성장 대신 0.9% 성장으로 그쳤다. 아마 그래서 3/4분기 성장이
0.2%로 줄어 들은 것이리라. 가장 좋아야 할 3/4분기에 이 數字를 보면 GDP성장이 주로 수출/輸出에 의해서 이룩된 것을 볼 수
있다. 지난 몇 개월이라는 것이 보여주는 것이 있다면, 일본 消費者들이 돈을 함부로 쓰기를 주저/躊躇하는 것은 경제분석가/
經濟分析家들이 생각한 것보다 훨씬 뿌리가 깊다는 것이다.(중략)
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They’re still waiting. Consumer spending grew at a mere 0.9 percent in the third quarter, much worse than the government’s own prediction of 3.7 percent - undoubtedly a major reason third-quarter growth dwindled to an uninspiring 0.2 percent. And a closer look at the figures during the best part of the year reveals that much of the growth in GDP was driven by exports. If the past few months have shown anything, it's that Japanese consumers' reluctance to spend might have deeper roots than some analyses have allowed for.
Stingy consumers in Japan are bad news for the rest of the world. Most analysts are now predicting 1.9 percent GDP growth in 2005, down from 2.5 percent in 2004. If they're right, Japan's debt will remain high and Japan will continue to buy U.S. treasuries to finance its trade surplus with the United States. Without a consumer-driven recovery, Japan won't be able to reduce its dependence on exports, which makes it a less reliable partner on the global stage.
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확실한 이야기가 국내 및 외부로부터의 여건이 상호작용을 해서 初期段階에서 일본(경제)회복을 망쳐버리고 만 것이다. 달라-貨의
가치 하락으로 해서 일본 상품이 매력을 잃었고 기름값 昻騰이 기름 안 나는 나라를 강타한 것이다.(중략)
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To be sure, a variety of domestic and external shocks have conspired in recent months to undermine an incipient(발단의 초기의) recovery. The plummeting dollar has made Japanese exports to the United States less competitive and high oil prices hit especially hard in a country with no reserves of its own. There were also unpredictable problems such as the worst earthquake in a decade and freak typhoons that wreaked havoc on the cabbage harvest, sending prices for this staple vegetable through the roof.(And that, in turn, sparked a miniboom in TV shows and magazines that instruct worried housewives how to squeeze the last yen out of cheap greens.)
Optimists, including those in the pay of the Japanese government, argue that the present slowdown is a "temporary adjustment" that will pass once the corporate sector resumes its march toward efficiency. Yet things might not be so simple. Take a closer look at encouraging recent employment figures, for example, and the downside becomes apparent. "Even as unemployment has declined, the wage rate has remained subdued and sluggish," says Masaaki Kanno, chief economist at J.P. Morgan in Tokyo.
That’s because much of the improvement in employment has come from companies that hire part-time workers in place of permanent ones. There are more jobs to go around but they’re not paying as well. "Companies are still not passing their gains along to the workers," notes Takahide Kiuchi, senior economist at Nomura Securities. Needless to say part-time workers also spend less. Small wonder that sales at traditional department stores are trending steadily downward, while, hundred-yen shops" are booming.
And that plays into a larger problem that the government has yet to challenge convincingly.
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조사에 따르면 소비자들은 단기 전망에 대해서는 확신을 갖지만 장기 전망에는 비관적이라는 것이 나타난다. 10년 이상 길었던 不況 그리고 과도한 정부부채의 무게 밑에 삐걱거리고 있는 年金制度, 그리고 老人人口의 增加 등이 그들로 하여 금 장래에 관해서 깊은 불안감을 주고 있는 것이다.(중략)
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Surveys suggest that consumers remain confident about the short-term, but pessimistic about their long-term prospects. More than a decade of recession, and a pension system that is groaning under the weight of government debt and a graying population, have left people with a deep sense of insecurity about the future. The Japanese, studies show are increasingly worried about a rising gap between rich and poor. One prominent newspaper, the Yomiuri Shimbun, speculated that the idea of a generally accessible middle class is dying. A recent survey by the Japanese Cabinet Office revealed that 63 percent of Japanese think that "their lives will be worse in 2030 than now" while an additional 76 percent approved the statement “Japan will be less competitive in 2030.”
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그들을 비난하기는 어렵다.
경기회복/景氣回復의 희망이 얼마나 ‘일과성’일 수 있다는 것을 보여주는 그 많은 통계수자/統計數字를 보면서도 일본의 여당/與黨(들)은 稅金을 줄이겠다는 단초/當初의 감소폭/減少幅을 줄이기(稅金을 더 걷기로)로 決定해서 많은 經濟學者들이 어처구니 없게 만들었다.
Lehman Brothers社(東京)의 Paul Sheard 氏는
“갑근세/甲勤稅를 키워서 소비를 진작시킬 수는 없는 것 아닙니까?”라고 말한다. “그런데
그것이 바로 그들(정부-여당)이 하고 있는 일입니다.”
이래서 일본은 항상 재미나는 나라이다.
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It's hard to blame them. Despite a spate of recent figures showing just how ephemeral the hopes for recovery remain, the ruling coalition recently decided to scale back a series of tax cuts ? leaving most economists open-mouthed in astonishment. "You don't stimulate consumption by raising income taxes:' says Paul Sheard of Lehman Brothers in Tokyo. "Remarkably enough, that seems to be exactly what they're doing:' Japan never ceases to amaze.
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† Net子 註: 외국사람들이 일본을 보는 눈이 바로
이와같이‘사람들을 돈 쓰게 만드는 궁리’가 풍부한 나라로 파악한다는 것을 우리는 알아야 한다.
이는 아마도 간접적으로 장사하는 입장에서 일본이 생존경쟁이 극심한 나라, 따라서 살기 힘든 나라임을 나타낼 것이다.
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Japan to cut spending despite budget increase
FT 2004-12-21 By David Pilling in Tokyo
( NET子 註: 유럽 여러나라에서 예산을 덜 쓰고 정부의 빚을 줄이기 위해서 피 나는 노력을 하고
있는 데 일본정부는 빚이 계속 늘어가고
있다.
물론 그러한 뒷감당은 다음 정권 몫이라는 심산에서이다. 그러한 철면피 같은 생각은
있을 수 없는 일이다.
문제는 한국 정부도 이러한 페턴을 따라가고 있고 '단체 행동만 하면 돈을 주는 성향'이
있다는 점이다.
한국정부는 금년에도 NGO를 위해서 1000억원 이상을 쓰고 있다고 한다. NET자: 주)
일본은 전체 내각을 통해서 화끈하게 (예산)소비를 줄일 것이다. 그래도 예산은 (하는 수 없이 늘어난)‘社會保障事業費’, 그리고 政府가 빌린 돈의 利子가 큼으로 해서 0.1% 늘어나 82,200조 엔으로 늘어난다.
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Japan will cut spending virtually across the board next year, though the budget wil1 increase 0.1 per cent to Y 82,200bn because of higher debt interest payments and social security expenditure.
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그러나 2006년 4월까지인 내년 회계연도 중에 발행하게 되는 國債는 Y 36,600조 엔서 Y 34,500조 엔으로 4年만에 처음으로 줄어 들게 된다. 이로 해서 豫算執行 額數 중 빚 내서 쓰는 部分의 비중이 44.6 per cent 에서 41.8 per cent로 내리는데 이렇게 빚에 의존하는 것은 선진국 중에서 최악이다.(중략)
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New bond issuance in the fiscal year to April 2006 will fall for the first time in four years from Y 36,600bn to Y 34,500bn ($332bn, €249bn, ￡170bn). That will shrink the dependency on debt issuance as a proportion of spending from 44.6 per cent to 41.8 percent, though this is still the highest of any advanced nation.
Junichiro Koizumi, prime minister. said the budget signaled that "structural reforms are advancing steadily", referring to his policy of shrinking the public sector. His government has tried to pull back from the pump priming of the 1990s by steadily reducing expenditure but has failed to keep bond issuance to Y 30,000bn as originally pledged.
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과학분야를 빼고는 교육분야에서 7.2%, 외국원조에서 3.8%, 그리고 (토목공사 등)공공사업비에서 3.6% 등을 깎아 모든 自由裁量性 예산 消費는 縮小될 것이다.
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Apart from science, all areas of discretionary spending will be cut, with the education budget down 7.2 percent, overseas development aid down 3.8 per cent and public works 3.6 percent lower.
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재정투자 및 은행으로부터의 政府起債 프로그램은 16% 줄어 17,150조엔 인데 이는 1996년에 있었던 최고치 때의 40%에 해당된다. 그리고 소위/所謂 ‘제2예산’이라고 하는 것은 housing loan corporation 등 공사 들을 지원하는 것인데 대부분 감액하거나 삭제 됐다.
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The "fiscal investment and loan programme" will be slashed 16 per cent to Y17,150bn, about 40 per cent of its Y40,50bn peak in 1996. This so-called second budget is used to fund government agencies, such as the housing loan corporation, many of which are being scaled back or scrapped.
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고이즈미 수상은 “재정투자 및 政府起債 프로그램은 20년만에 두자리 삭감을 했다”고 말했다.(중략)
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"The fiscal investment and loan programme fell by double digits for the first time in
more than 20 years," Mr. Koizumi said.
Sadakazu Tanigaki, finance minister, said the government had taken a step towards its
goal of achieving a primary balance, before interest payments, early next decade.
However, he cautioned: “Public debt issuance remains massive, so we cannot be
complacent.”
The Ministry of Finance(MoF) has been accused by some economists of pushing its goal of
fiscal rectitude too rapidly given that the economy is still suffering from deflation
and domestic demand remains fragile.
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재무부는 금년에 2.1% 그리고 2005-2006에는 1.6%의 성장을 기대할 수 있기 때문에 이 미세한 豫算緊縮은 크지 않아서 充分히 감당할 수 있을 것이라고 말하고 있다.(중략)
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But the MoF said the economy, which it predicted would grow by 2.1 per cent in the
current fiscal year and by 1.6 per cent in 2005-06, could easily withstand what if
described as very minor fiscal tightening.
The MoF's confidence in the robustness of the recovery came in spite of a cabinet office
report yesterday, which downgraded the economic outlook for the second month in a row.
Heizo Takenaka, economy minister, said that although the economy was s1owing "recovery
remained in place".
The government's finances have been helped by higher than expected tax revenue as
companies recover their profitability. This year, MoF estimates a tax windfall of about
Y1,500bn, while it is predicting a further increase of Y2,260bn to Y44,000bn next fiscal
year.
Social security spendingwil1 rise 2.9 per cent to Y20,380bn, reflecting an increasing
number of retirees. Debt service on the Y538,400bn of outstanding government bonds will
rise by Y874bn to Y18,442bn.
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